Coyote Mesa, April
A structurally strong April —
headroom remains on weekday afternoons.
Coyote Mesa posted its strongest April on record, with revenue reaching $284,612 — up 11.4% MoM and tracking +12.8% YoY on a trailing-twelve-month basis. The lift was unusual in shape: both rate and volume moved in the same direction, a pattern your Florida flagship clients have shown only at the start of multi-quarter outperformance windows.
The mechanics behind the +18.7% RevPAR jump are not a price increase — they are a category mix shift. Premium share rose 24% → 31% as promotional discounting was pulled back, while occupancy climbed 4.2pp on the back of weekend morning fills. List rates were untouched.
Beneath the strong headline, two pockets of slack remain visible: weekday afternoons are soft (Tue–Wed 3–5 PM at 28% occupancy), and you sit 11.5pp below top-quartile on overall occupancy. Both are addressable without touching the premium rate ladder. Combined opportunity from the three vetted actions in this report is approximately +$6,650/month, captured over 60 days.
Trailing twelve months
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 RevenueCURRENT | $284,612 | Highest April on record |
| Trailing-12 Revenue | $2.94M | +12.8% YoY |
| August 2025 PeakPEAK | $298,420 | Summer high · all-time monthly |
| January 2026 Trough | $162,180 | −43% vs trailing 3-mo · seasonal |
| MoM Growth (Apr) | +11.4% | Outpaced peer median by 4.6pp |
| YoY Growth (Apr) | +18.0% | 2nd consecutive strengthening Apr |
| Peer Set Beta | 0.82 | Lower volatility than peer median |
Power Hours: 36% of slots, 50% of revenue.
Applying the 50/20 rule that Mike encoded last quarter, Thor identified 36% of your active tee-time hours — concentrated on Saturday and Sunday mornings — that generate roughly half of monthly revenue. The current Coyote Mesa ratio sits 16pp above the textbook 20% target, meaning your demand curve is steeper than average: lift-resistance on these slots is unusually low, and pricing headroom of $11–18 per round is supported by peer elasticity data.
Top quartile on rate —
roughly mid-pack on utilization.
Against your AZ peer set, Coyote Mesa is $5.20 above peer median ARPR ($68.40 vs $63.20) and within $5.70 of top-quartile ARPR. On rate alone, you operate in the premium tier of the market.
Where the gap opens up is utilization. Top-quartile peers run 73.8% occupancy; you're at 62.3%. The 11.5pp delta is concentrated in Monday–Wednesday afternoons — 34% occupancy vs 51% for top-quartile peers. Closing half of this gap unlocks roughly +$5,400/month at your current rate ladder.
Direct booking mix is +10pp above peer median (71% vs 61%) — a strong margin signal that your retention and brand awareness work harder than the raw revenue suggests.
| Course | Strategy | ARPR | Occupancy | RevPAR | Direct Mix | Premium Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coyote Mesa YOU | Rate-led | $68.40 | 62.3% | $42.61 | 71% | 31% |
| Peer α | Volume-led | $58.90 | 71.8% | $42.29 | 64% | 18% |
| Peer β | Premium-led | $72.10 | 56.4% | $40.66 | 73% | 38% |
| Peer γ | Balanced | $63.50 | 65.2% | $41.40 | 68% | 26% |
| Peer median | 14-course aggregate | $63.20 | 58.2% | $33.21 | 61% | 24% |
| Top quartile | Top performers | $74.10 | 73.8% | $48.30 | 77% | 38% |
Three vetted moves, ranked by impact.
Each recommendation is generated from your April data, then cross-checked against peer-set elasticity bands. Estimated revenue impact assumes 50% capture within 60 days — a conservative model based on historical channel-partner rollouts.
Lift power-hour pricing on weekend mornings
Saturday 8–10 AM and Sunday 7–9 AM consistently sell out within 6 days of slot release. Test a $11–18 lift on these slots through Sagacity Dynamic Pricing — peer elasticity in the equivalent rate band suggests volume drop of <3%, well below the breakeven threshold of 14%.
Soft-hour campaign: Tue/Wed 3–5 PM
Mid-week afternoons sit at 28% occupancy, well below peer median of 47%. A targeted twilight unlimited promo through Sagacity Marketing — combined with the Tee Time Promote widget — typically lifts volume 30–40% in this specific window without cannibalizing premium slots. Lead-time data confirms these golfers are local, price-sensitive, and not crossing over to your weekend power-hour buyer profile.
Shift 4% of OTA bookings to direct
You're 6pp below top quartile on direct booking mix (71% vs 77%). Targeted retargeting on previous-OTA bookers, plus the Sagacity Promote widget on your landing page, typically claws back 3–5pp within 60 days. Each 1pp shift away from OTA commission unlocks roughly $1,800/month at your ARPR — and the compounding effect over a year is materially larger.
If all three executed, captured at 50%
60-day rollout window · conservative confidence model